重庆市主体功能区识别的主导因素与空间稳定性约束机理     

汪洋  王力力  祁鹏卫  刘志海 《地理学报》2019,74(1):44-62

主体功能区规划已上升为国家制度和战略,对中国长期空间发展格局优化与再组织将发挥积极的引导和约束作用。从地域性角度出发,探寻主体功能区发生性（形成与演化）和反馈性（识别与规划）时空机理与规律是地理学具有时代意义的重要科学问题。以重庆市为例,通过国土空间开发条件综合评价,识别了主体功能区划分的适宜性空间格局。基于对西南山区发展约束条件的基本认识,提出了地域主体功能空间分异的主导性约束假设,设定地形和区位为原生性主导因素,验证了其与区划指标系统的定量关联性,以此为基础解析了主导因素约束机理并提出了地域主体功能区的空间稳定性机制。研究发现：① 开发与保护适宜性识别结果的格局指向清晰。城市化适宜的区域主要集中于都市区和部分周边区县,区域副中心（万州和黔江）适宜性也相对较高。生态保护适宜的区域集中于渝东北秦巴山区及部分三峡库区区县,同时包括渝东南武陵山区所在区县。② 地形和区位因子在本区域对主体功能区的识别与形成具有主导约束作用。回归分析显示,主体功能区划指标与地形因子相关性水平达到显著的超过70%,区位因子超过40%;两者综合后与区划标志变量（A、B指数）的相线性相关拟合度R²均超过0.8;地理探测器发现,地形和区位因子对区划指标的约束性分别有9个和7个达到0.05显著性水平,对A、B指数的解释度分别约为70%和60%,两者叠加后,约束水平全部达到显著,对A、B指数的解释度在90%左右。③ 空间稳定性机制表现为两个方面,其一是基于主导因素约束的稳定性传递机制,称为客观稳定性;其二是基于指标体系的局域相对性和算法的内部抵消机制,称为主观稳定性。两种机制的协同性验证了区划技术系统的地域适应性和科学性。  相似文献   

乌鲁木齐大气混合层厚度和稳定度与大气污染的关系          下载免费PDF全文

李振杰  金莉莉  何清  缪启龙  买买提艾力·买买提依明 《干旱区地理》2019,42(3):478-491

利用乌鲁木齐市4座10层100 m梯度气象塔2013年6月~2014年4月气象观测资料和7个环境监测站[WTBX]AQI[WTBZ]资料，计算并分析了大气混合层厚度和稳定度特征，探讨了大气混合层厚度和稳定度与污染的关系。结果表明：乌鲁木齐市混合层厚度夏季郊区高、城区低，冬季从南郊—城区—北郊随地势降低依次降低；夏季和冬季分别在1 559～1 772 m和526～1 156 m之间。地面至2 km以上每500 m高度间隔统计混合层厚度，500～1 000 m出现频率最多；月变化为6～9月基本在500 m以上，且每个高度区间其概率均超过10%，10月～次年2月1 500 m以上区间概率明显减小；日变化为中午13:00～16:00达到最高值，下午和傍晚迅速下降。白天较大的感热输送提供充足的热力条件，这也体现出白天以不稳定层结为主，夜间则以稳定层结为主。大气稳定度分类结果，夏季郊区和城区不稳定（A～C类）所占比例差不多，冬季北郊稳定（E、F类）所占比较最大、城区最弱。[WTBX]AQI指数冬季最大，从南郊—城区—北郊依次增大，这与采暖期污染物多、南郊比北郊地势高有利于扩散输送有关。总体来看，乌鲁木齐大气混合层厚度空间分布与气象要素、大气稳定度、地形等密切相关，对AQI[WTBZ]指数分布有重要影响，这对近地层大气污染状况预报有着重要的指导意义。  相似文献   

Temporal stability of soil moisture in an oasis of northwestern China          下载免费PDF全文

Shuaipu Zhang  Mingan Shao 《水文研究》2017,31(15):2725-2736

Temporal stability of soil moisture has been widely used in hydrological monitoring since it emerged. However, the spatial analysis of temporal stability at the landscape scale is often limited because of insufficient sampling numbers. This work made an effort to investigate the spatial variations of temporal stability of soil moisture in an oasis landscape. The specific objectives of the study were to explore the spatial patterns of temporal stability and to determine the controlling factors of temporal stability in the desert oasis. A time series of soil moisture measurements were gathered on 23 occasions at 118 locations over 3 years in a rectangular transect of approximately 100 km². The nonparametric Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, standard deviation of relative difference (SDRD), and mean absolute bias error (MABE) were used to quantify the temporal stability of soil moisture. Results showed that the temporal stability of soil moisture was depth dependent and season dependent. The spatial pattern of soil moisture in a deep soil layer and between two same seasons generally had a high temporal stability. SDRD and MABE were spatially autocorrelated and exhibited strong spatial structures in the geographic space. The concept of temporal stability can be extended to describe the time‐stable areas of soil moisture with geostatistics. There were great differences between SDRD and MABE in describing the temporal stability of soil moisture and in identifying the controlling factors of temporal stability. In this case, MABE was a better alternative to estimate the areal mean soil moisture using representative locations than SDRD. Land use type, soil moisture condition, and soil particle composition were the dominant controls of temporal stability in the oasis. These insights could help to better understand the essence of temporal stability of soil moisture in arid regions.  相似文献   

龙门山断裂带上“破裂空段”的发震概率研究     

宋金  蒋海昆  孟令媛  臧阳 《中国地震》2017,33(2):219-228

本文采用分层粘弹性介质模型计算了汶川地震对芦山震中产生的库仑应力加载的影响,进而结合Dieterich(1994)提出的速率状态摩擦定律给出芦山附近区域6级地震累积发震概率随时间的变化。结果显示,2013年芦山7.0级地震时其累积发震概率达18%,说明汶川地震产生的应力扰动加速了芦山地震的发生。本文还计算了汶川、芦山2次地震对其间"破裂空段"处产生的累积库仑应力扰动的影响,结合背景地震发生率,给出了"破裂空段"处6级地震累积发震概率变化。虽然计算结果可能受到大邑地震、介质模型参数的选取和背景地震发生概率等因素影响而存在一定误差,但"破裂空段"在2次强震应力加载下累积发震概率是不断增大的,因此我们认为"破裂空段"处发生中强地震的紧迫性不断增强。  相似文献   

A finite element model for seismic response analysis of deformable rocking frames          下载免费PDF全文

Michalis F. Vassiliou  Kevin R. Mackie  Božidar Stojadinović 《地震工程与结构动力学》2017,46(3):447-466

A new finite element model to analyze the seismic response of deformable rocking bodies and rocking structures is presented. The model comprises a set of beam elements to represent the rocking body and zero‐length fiber cross‐section elements at the ends of the rocking body to represent the rocking surfaces. The energy dissipation during rocking motion is modeled using a Hilber–Hughes–Taylor numerically dissipative time step integration scheme. The model is verified through correct prediction of the horizontal and vertical displacements of a rigid rocking block and validated against the analytical Housner model solution for the rocking response of rigid bodies subjected to ground motion excitation. The proposed model is augmented by a dissipative model of the ground under the rocking surface to facilitate modeling of the rocking response of deformable bodies and structures. The augmented model is used to compute the overturning and uplift rocking response spectra for a deformable rocking frame structure to symmetric and anti‐symmetric Ricker pulse ground motion excitation. It is found that the deformability of the columns of a rocking frame does not jeopardize its stability under Ricker pulse ground motion excitation. In fact, there are cases where a deformable rocking frame is more stable than its rigid counterpart. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>W</Subscript>9 Tohoku earthquake in 2011 in Japan: precursors uncovered by natural time analysis          下载免费PDF全文

Panayiotis A. Varotsos  Nicholas V. Sarlis  Efthimios S. Skordas  Mary S. Lazaridou-Varotsos 《地震科学（英文版）》2017,30(4):183-191

This paper reviews the precursory phenomena of the 2011 M _W9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan that emerge solely when we analyze the seismicity data in a new time domain termed natural time. If we do not consider this analysis, important precursory changes cannot be identified and hence are missed. Natural time analysis has the privilege that enables the introduction of an order parameter of seismicity. In this frame, we find that the fluctuations of this parameter exhibit an unprecedented characteristic change, i.e., an evident minimum, approximately two months before Tohoku earthquake, which strikingly is almost simultaneous with unique anomalous geomagnetic field variations recorded mainly on the z component. This is consistent with our finding that such a characteristic change in seismicity appears when a seismic electric signal (SES) activity of the VAN method (from the initials of Varotsos, Alexopoulos, Nomicos) initiates, and provides a direct confirmation of the physical interconnection between SES and seismicity.  相似文献   

体应变地震波最大振幅与地震震级和震中距的统计关系探讨     

姜佳宁  吴利军 《中国地震研究》2017,31(1):107-115

Based on the body strain record of Tiantanghe station from 2008 to 2014,we make a statistical analysis of the relationship between the maximum amplitude of the body strain record and the surface-wave magnitude,epicenter distance of the earthquakes,which occurred in the Chinese mainland and its surrounding areas with MS≥6. 0 and the rest of the world with MS≥7. 0. According to statistical results,we propose a statistical formula between the surface-wave magnitude of earthquake and the maximum amplitude of the body strain record,the epicenter distance: M_S~*= 0. 37 ln A_max+ 0. 57 ln D + 0. 07. We can also derive a theoretical estimation formula for the maximum amplitude: A_max=e~(2. 7(M_S~*-0. 07))D~(-1. 54). This demonstrates that the maximum amplitude of the body strain record increases exponentially with the increase of the surface-wave magnitude, and decreases with the increase of the epicenter distance,and shows a negative correlation with their product. We further discuss the necessity of adding instruments with high frequency sampling to earthquake monitoring, and dicuss the prospects for precise earthquake prediction in future.  相似文献   

Numerical and analytical observations on long and infinite slopes     

D. V. Griffiths  Jinsong Huang  Giorgia F. deWolfe 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2011,35(5):569-585

Interest in the mechanics of landslides has led to renewed evaluation of the infinite slope equations, and the need for a more general framework for estimating the factor of safety of long and infinite slopes involving non‐homogeneous soil profiles. The paper describes finite element methods that demonstrate the potential for predicting failure in long slope profiles where the critical mechanism is not necessarily at the base of the soil layer. The influence of slope angle is also examined in long slopes, leading to some counter‐intuitive conclusions about the impact of slope steepness on the factor of safety. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

青藏高原东南缘热流估算及与地震活动相关性分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

唐晗晗  郭良辉  方圆 《地球物理学报》2020,63(3):1056-1069

青藏高原东南缘地区内部构造运动强烈,是地热资源发育与地震事件频发的活动地区.大地热流记录了发生在地球深部各种作用过程的热学信息,可以作为地质构造活动和地震活动研究的有效约束,但是大范围的热流数据测量很难实现,因此,本文根据居里面深度结合放射性元素分布等计算了青藏高原东南缘的大地热流分布.首先,通过地表放射性元素的分布计算出地表产热量的分布,然后,利用相关地热参数之间的关系迭代计算出该地区地壳上下层的热导率分布,最终估算出地表热流及地下不同深度处热流值的分布.本文结果表明:(1)青藏高原东南缘的大地热流位于44～108mW·m~(-2)之间,平均75mW·m~(-2),符合研究地区西南高、东北低的背景趋势,地壳内部热流值随深度的增加而降低.大部分地区地表热流异常与实际地热带分布相吻合,如川西、藏东南与滇西地区等地为地热高值区,川东和楚雄等地为热流低值区.(2)结合其他地球物理探测结果,总结了地壳内部热流与地震事件的联系:在地热梯度带地区,当两侧地层在一定深度范围内存在明显物性差异时,地震事件高发.  相似文献   

The effect of long-term aerial exposure on intertidal mudflat erodibility     

Hieu M. Nguyen  Karin R. Bryan  Conrad A. Pilditch 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(14):3623-3638

Intertidal zones by definition are exposed to air at low tide, and the exposure duration can be weeks (e.g. during neap tides) depending on water level and bed elevation. Here we investigated the effect of varying exposure duration (6 h to 10 days) on intertidal mudflat erosion (measured using the EROMES device), where the effects of water content and biofilm biomass (using chlorophyll-a content as a proxy, Chl-a μg g⁻¹) were taken into account. Sediments were collected between spring and summer (in October 2018, January 2019 and February 2019) from an intertidal site in the Firth of Thames, New Zealand. Longer exposure duration resulted in more stable sediments [higher erosion threshold (Ƭ_cr, N m⁻²) and lower erosion rate (ER, g m⁻² s⁻¹)]. After 10 days, exposure increased Ƭ_cr by 1.7 to 4.4 times and decreased ER by 11.6 to 21.5 times compared with 6 h of exposure. Chl-a and water content changed with exposure duration and were significantly correlated with changes in Ƭ_cr and ER. The stability of sediments after two re-submersion periods following exposure was also examined and showed that the stabilizing effect of exposure persisted even though water content had increased to non-exposure levels. Re-submersion was associated with an increase in Chl-a content, which likely counteracted the destabilizing influence of increased water content. A site-specific model, which included the interplay between evaporation and biofilm biomass, was developed to predict water content as a function of exposure duration. The modelled water content (W_Mod.) explained 98% of the observed variation in water content (W_Obs.). These results highlight how the exposure period can cause subtle changes to erosion regimes of sediments. An understanding of these effects (e.g. in sediment transport modelling) is critical to predicting the resilience of intertidal zones into the future, when sea-level rise is believed to exacerbate erosion in low-lying areas. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献